Communication Industry Trends

Celebrating another first of its kind report coming from the channels team at Omdia. The telco market, which represents close to one quarter of all B2B technology spend in the world (forecasted to be $1.35 trillion in 2026), has been somewhat of a "black box" for the past 40 years. Devan Adams on our team has taken on the mission to break down how this massive market is sold around the world - the vendors (telcos, cablecos, etc.), distributors, and partners/agents. The most guarded of this black box is in North America and the agent model driving $16.6 billion in gross billings. Brief history lesson: The Technology Services Distributor (TSD) was renamed by the industry in late 2021 from the legacy term "Master Agents". After the breakup of AT&T in the early 1980s, the telco market became very complex - with new carriers representing hundreds of different contracts, price points, and service models. The first telecom consultants (or brokers) were formed shortly after and entrepreneurs realized that if they held a "master" contract with a carrier, they could let hundreds of smaller individual brokers sell under their agreement, providing those brokers with higher commissions and better support than they could get on their own. In the early 1990s, pioneering firms such as TBI and Global Systems Telecom started rapidly recruiting individual agents and a new channel of distribution was born. However, the B2B telco market growth stalled about 10 years ago as: --> Expensive, high-margin MPLS (Multi-Protocol Label Switching) networks started to be disrupted by SD-WAN (software defined) using relatively cheap internet bandwidth. --> The cloud hyperscalers and SaaS take off - companies moved apps to Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, they no longer needed a "hub-and-spoke" network back to a central office. They just needed a fast on-ramp to the public internet. --> The pandemic emptied offices and the need for massive "office-bound" bandwidth vanished. Enterprises accelerated their shift to remote work and cloud-only architectures. The TSD market quickly consolidated from around 25 regional players (mirroring the original 7 "Baby Bells") to the six national (some international) powerhouses Telarus, Intelisys, AVANT Communications, AppDirect, Sandler Partners, and Bridgepointe Technologies) that control 72.3% of the market today. Plot twist: This isn't just about telecommunications. The TSD market transformed quicker than the large telco/cableco companies into SD-WAN and other networking technologies, cloud and colo data centers, UCaaS, CCaaS, cybersecurity, and now AI-enhanced communication and collaboration technologies. As the broader telecom market is stuck in flat to negative growth, the TSD market is growing at 13.4% with new vendors, new solutions, convergence with the massive $650 billion managed services industry, and around 30,000 individual sub-agents that carry decades of deep customer relationships.

Telcos are cutting muscle, not fat Over the last decade, the top 20 Telcos eliminated 476,000 jobs. A full 25% of their workforce vanished. Verizon dropped from 177,000 to under 100,000. AT&T halved its staff. BT, Orange, Telefónica, all trimmed deep. And yet EBITDA margins barely moved. Global averages hovered at 33% in 2015 and remain almost identical in 2024. Net profit margins are still weak. AT&T lands near 8%. Orange and Telefónica oscillate between 2% and 5%. Telcos Return on capital sits below 5%, well under the cost of equity. The real problem is structural. Telecom runs on an asset-heavy model with mandatory reinvestment. Annual depreciation demands fresh capex just to stay flat. 5G added spectral cost but fragmented architecture. Vendor ecosystems are optimized for recurring complexity, not simplification. Internal talent was replaced not with automation, but with outsourced friction. Cutting 25% of jobs did not reduce cost, it just relocated it. What used to be salaried became contractual. What was operationally controlled became externally managed. The work stayed. The margin did not. Now AI enters the Telco scene and the same mistake looms. Boards expect 10 to 30% efficiency gains, but unless telcos confront the root issues: architectural sprawl, vendor lock-in, fragmented stacks, no uplift will materialize. Job cuts will return, this time repackaged as recurring software fees and AI platform licenses. Efficiency is not a strategy. It is a temporary illusion unless it transforms the model. The future is not about removing people, but removing duplication, opacity, and vendor drag. That is where margins hide. And where telecom must finally look. https://lnkd.in/gw7ruCW8

"The U.S. may no longer need a “fourth carrier” to maintain competition" Brendan Carr, FCC Commissioner. EchoStar (Dish’s parent company) is selling $23B worth of 5G spectrum licenses to AT&T, signaling the end of Dish’s ambitions to become the fourth major wireless carrier. Boost Mobile, once a cornerstone of Dish’s strategy, will now operate primarily on AT&T’s network. This move follows years of spectrum acquisition and 5G buildout efforts by Dish, which reached ~80% U.S. coverage but struggled under mounting debt and regulatory pressure. The FCC had recently criticized EchoStar’s slow deployment and underutilization of key spectrum bands. What This Means: 1) Dish is effectively exiting the facilities-based wireless game. 2) The sale helps alleviate debt but marks a strategic retreat from its 5G ambitions. 3) Boost Mobile becomes more of an MVNO, relying on AT&T’s infrastructure. 4) AWS had partnered with Dish to build a cloud-native 5G network, with Dish stepping back, AWS may need to pivot its telco strategy or seek new partners to showcase its 5G capabilities. #5GDeployment #TelecomTransformation #WirelessIndustry #SpectrumStrategy #NetworkInnovation #CloudNativeNetworks #AWSforTelco #EdgeComputing #TelcoCloud #DigitalInfrastructure #TechStrategy #MergersAndAcquisitions #IndustryInsights #MarketShift #BusinessTransformation

Is the MVNO business becoming more attractive? I am seeing a general trend where MVNOs are no longer just low-cost resellers—they’re becoming innovation hubs and value enablers. Here's a snapshot of some interesting things I am witnessing: 1️⃣ Hyper-Niche Market Strategies MVNOs are carving out success by going hyper-niche—serving specific communities, such as expatriates, gamers, seniors, or environmentally conscious users—with tailored plans, languages, and brand messaging. 🎯 Over 65% of new MVNO entrants in the last 2 years have targeted niche segments (Analysys Mason). Relevance beats reach. 2️⃣ eSIM & Digital-First Experiences With eSIM adoption on the rise, MVNOs are moving away from physical SIMs and enabling instant onboarding through apps. This is transforming how users activate and manage mobile plans—no (or less) stores, less delays. 3️⃣ Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) MVNOs 🧱Some MVNOs are shifting from being consumer-focused brands to becoming enablers—offering their tech stacks to help others launch telecom services, fast and cost-effectively. This enables rapid go-to-market for new digital brands, fintechs, and IoT ventures embedding mobile into their offerings. 4️⃣ Other target opportunities 🏭 Think B2B opportunities, private 5G networks for enterprises, and IoT connectivity as differentiators in a saturated market. 🚀 The result? A more agile, diversified, and digitally-native MVNO sector. 👥 Curious to hear from others in the space—what trends are you watching?  Stephanie Ormston Elizabeth Hunter Adil Belihomji Ken Willner image source: telecoms dot com #5g #telecom #MVNO #networks #telcos #eSIM #MobileIndustry #VPspeak [^530]

🌏 Continuing my tracking of the fintech & telecom convergence... 🌐 Klarna is the latest fintech to enter the telecom space, launching Klarna Mobile, a 5G MVNO powered by Gigs, the Telecom-as-a-Service provider that’s become the default enabler in this trend. The rollout will begin in the US, with the UK, Germany, and other markets to follow 👇 Here’s a quick rundown of other fintechs & superapps already playing in this space: ✅ Nubank founded in 2013 in Brazil, launched NuCel, its travel eSIM product, powered by Gigs and Claro (a major Brazilian MNO) in 2024 ✅ Revolut founded in 2015 in the UK, started by reselling 1Global eSIMs and now plans to launch its own MVNO offering in 2025 ✅ Zolve, a cross-border neobank founded in 2020, launched Zolve Connect as an MVNO in 2023 using Gigs. ✅ bunq, also founded in 2015 in the Netherlands, hasn’t gone full MVNO but offers eSIM capabilities through a partnership with Gigs and BetterRoaming. ✅ Grab the Southeast Asian superapp (ride-hailing, food delivery, etc.), entered telecom in 2023 as a full MVNO using Gigs infra. 🔥 And now, Klarna, founded in 2005, originally a BNPL player, and now a licensed neobank in the EU is the newest to join the MVNO movement. 🌐 Emerging Trends: 1️⃣ Sticky consumer play: This strategy resonates most with cross-border fintechs. Nubank operates across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Revolut spans ~48 countries. Klarna is present in ~26. The global reach makes telecom a logical extension. Interestingly, domestic-only neobanks like Chime (US) and Monzo (UK) haven’t made moves yet, but haven’t ruled it out either. KakaoBank, based in South Korea and expanding into Thailand and Vietnam, is one to watch closely. 2️⃣ Travel + Superapp angle: Nubank positioned NuCel as its travel product. Similarly, this move makes sense for cross-border apps: neobanks, superapps, payment players, ride-hailing, even delivery or OTA brands (Uber, Cleartrip, Scapia, Atlys, though Atlys will need to fix its CX first). It’s a natural extension for anyone wanting to own more of the traveler’s journey 3️⃣ Value add in fintech auth flows: eSIM integration creates new levers in identity verification, onboarding, and user stickiness. This could become part of bundled infra for cross-border payments and financial journeys 🌍 While India still faces telecom challenges (limited eSIM adoption, regulatory inertia, clunky UX), for fintechs building global user journeys, especially those looking at cross-border payments, remittance, or travel spend, this is a powerful lever. Over the next year, I expect nearly every major neobank and superapp to either embed eSIMs or become an MVNO, with Gigs as the go-to enabler 🧠 There’s a deeper piece on this in the comments (from a few months ago), still relevant, and I’m working on an updated version soon.

Telecom Sector Update: October 2025 - Rapid Transformation: The global telecom industry is experiencing a dynamic shift, with AI, automation, and cloud-native networks driving innovation and operational efficiency. The move to 5G and even early steps towards 6G are enabling new business models, especially with private networks for enterprises and advanced IoT deployments. - Market Headlines: Telecom companies worldwide are reporting revenue growth (4.3% to $1.14 trillion globally), with India standing out for network expansion and rural connectivity efforts. Notably, India has reached 75% of its "100% telecom saturation" mission, consolidating leadership through massive investments in infrastructure. - Financial Trends: Operators are under pressure to raise mobile tariffs as investment in network technology outpaces revenue in highly competitive markets. Yet, telecom stocks remain attractive due to their stable, recurring income bolstered by fiber and 5G rollouts. - Leading Indicators:     - Subscriber Base: India remains the world's second-largest telecom market with over 1.2 billion subscribers, and nearly 996 million broadband users as of September 2025.   - Data Trends: Monthly data usage per user leads globally, powered by surging demands for video, gaming, AR/VR, and AI-driven services.   - Network Expansion: Accelerated rollout of 4G densification, fiberization for 5G backhaul, and new broadband growth in tier-2/3 towns are significant.   - Policy Developments: New cybersecurity rules, spectrum auctions, and Digital India policy pushes are shaping the regulatory landscape. - Tech and Business Evolution:     - AI Adoption: Over half of telecom companies have implemented AI at scale, with another 37% actively scaling up. Generative AI is cited as a long-term growth engine by 65% of Indian CXOs.   - Cloud and Edge: Cloud-native networks are the new normal, boosting agility, service assurance, and digital transformation for enterprise customers.   - Sustainability: Green networks and sustainable business practices are coming to the forefront, as the sector aligns with global environmental goals. - Risks & Outlook: Key risks for 2025 include regulatory shifts, cybersecurity threats, and adapting to new business models and spectrum management. Market analysts expect telecom's robust performance to continue fueling a bull run in Indian equities. Conclusion:   The telecom sector is at a crossroads—technology, investment, and sustainability are shaping its future. Markets like India, Turkey, Europe, and North America stand out for innovation and growth. Forward-looking indicators such as rural adoption, ARPU increases, swift 5G rollout, fiber penetration, and strategic AI deployment will point the way ahead. #TelecomTrends #5G #6G #AIinTelecom #DigitalIndia #TelecomNews #IndustryInsights #Connectivity #NetworkInnovation

11 Telecom Trends for 2026 1. AI becomes a mass-market data traffic driver. Video was long seen as the primary driver of data growth. In 2026, mass adoption of AI applications will emerge as a major new source of data-plane demand, driven by highly interactive & multimodal usage that fundamentally change traffic patterns. 2. Edge compute will gain renewed relevance driven by AI, not by CDNs. #Edge computing will see renewed momentum as AI inference moves closer to users and networks. Unlike earlier #CDN-centric models, this resurgence will be driven by latency-sensitive AI interactions, RAN-adjacent intelligence, and enterprise AI workloads. 3. Routing and switching architectures will evolve to meet AI data-center demands. The rapid growth of AI training and inference will place unprecedented demands on #data-center and backbone networks. Architectures will evolve to handle massive east-west traffic and loss-sensitive flows. 4. #Optical transport networks will evolve to carry the next traffic tsunami efficiently. AI-led traffic growth and inter–data-center connectivity will drive adoption of 800G wavelengths and early 1 Tbps-class optics. Tighter IP–optical integration will allow transport networks to scale capacity while improving energy and cost efficiency. 5. #5GStandalone deployments will accelerate. Operators will push SA rollouts to enable network slicing and cloud-native cores. These capabilities are essential for advanced automation, AI-driven operations, and preparing the network for future evolution. 6. #5G Advanced will come of age. Capabilities from recent #3GPP releases will begin translating into tangible improvements in performance and efficiency- moving 5G Advanced from feature definitions to operational relevance. 7. #Agentic AI will start becoming mainstream. AI systems will increasingly start taking bounded, supervised actions across operational and service workflows, marking a shift toward intent-driven automation. 8. AI-driven network #operations will become real. Closed-loop automation, predictive optimization, and proactive fault prevention will move from pilots into production, materially changing how networks are operated and optimized. 9. #Selfhealing networks will scale and become mainstream. AI-driven detection, root-cause inference, and #autonomous remediation will allow networks to identify, isolate, and recover from faults with minimal human intervention, improving resilience at unprecedented scale. 10. AI in Radio Access Networks will take its first baby steps. From energy optimization and localized decision-making, #AI will begin appearing in #RAN pilot networks, enabled by on-chip AI accelerators and edge intelligence. 11. 6G standards will pick up pace. While commercialization remains distant, 2026 will see faster progress in #6G standardization, with clearer alignment on architecture, spectrum strategy, and native AI that will shape the next decade.

🚀 Vodafone3 transforms the UK telecoms landscape 🚀 Our (very) deep dive on the Vodafone and Three UK merger has thrown up far-reaching implications for UK telecoms: 💠 We expect continued pressure at the budget end of the mobile market, intensifying competition at the top end, and some opportunities in the short term 💠 Following disclosure from Ofcom, we've amended our spectrum trade assumptions to give Virgin Media O2 more, but different, spectrum with a 68% uplift to its capacity. BT Group has some big strategic decisions to make in response, with various options at its disposal 💠Retail pricing remedies will anchor prices at the lower end of the market for at least three years, but have less of an impact at the higher end, with social tariffs a threat to both broadband and mobile 💠MVNOs will be well protected and the likes of iDMobile are particularly well-set to benefit 💠Although the network upgrade plan will take many years to effect fully, there will be some very notable upsides within the first year 💠 Commercially we see some opportunities on broadband, less so on FWA short term, and we expect the company to tread very carefully on retreating from any of its main brands 💠 Vodafone3 is a significant positive for the Vodafone Group with the potential to double its excess FCF, although the looming cost of buying out CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd will curtail spending somewhat 💠Flashpoints to look out for: rolling over of MVNO contracts; dissolution of MBNL, and the independent valuation of Vodafone3 for call and put options Enders Analysis subscribers can read our in-depth report here: https://lnkd.in/eac3CqeC James Barford Hamish Low Artemis Loynes Cornerstone Mobile Broadband Network Ltd (MBNL) #Telecommunications #Wireless #TelecomNews #UKTelecoms

Differentiated connectivity is moving from concept to commercial reality. In 2025 alone, more than 20 new differentiated connectivity offers were launched globally, bringing the total to 65. Of those, 24 are in Europe.   In a recent Beyond the Buzzwords conversation with Cecilia Atterwall, we explored what is driving this shift.   Consumer research shows that 40 percent of users can clearly identify moments where guaranteed performance matters to them. Half of those say they would be willing to pay for it. That changes how we think about value. It moves the conversation beyond megabits per second and toward outcomes: a video call that does not drop, a live stream that does not buffer, mission-critical communication that simply works.   Across markets, we see different approaches taking shape. For example, Cosmote in Greece offers a Turbo package, allowing users to access additional capacity for a defined period of time. Elisa in Finland is using a tiered model, where users can pay more for higher performance when they need it. Outside Europe, AT&T is enhancing stadium experiences to capture value when demand peaks. These operators deserve credit for experimenting with new commercial models and putting differentiated performance into practice.   Underpinning it all is real 5G, meaning 5G Standalone. Network slicing, service level agreements, and APIs that expose capabilities to developers are what make performance-based services possible at scale. And scale is critical. The framework is becoming clearer: explore new use cases, scale the model, then monetize it.   The commercial logic is strengthening. The technical foundations are in place. The ecosystem is maturing. The next step is to scale, and to do it with real discipline.   Watch the full discussion here: https://lnkd.in/dBKDvPdz   #Ericsson #BeyondTheBuzzwords #DifferentiatedConnectivity

T-Mobile just passed Verizon as the largest U.S. carrier. It was predictable, but the implications for the industry are bigger than the headline. The real story is not subscriber math. It is how digital friction has disappeared from switching. T-Mobile collapsed the entire porting and activation process into a 15-minute in-app flow. No retail visit. No upsell attempts. No waiting. When switching becomes an impulse decision, the old retention playbook collapses. This exposes who has been winning on actual customer value versus who has been winning on inertia. From my time in network engineering and customer operations, I saw how long the industry relied on friction as a buffer. Contracts, retail workflows, complex activation steps. Now that these are gone, the competitive field shifts to the basics: price, performance, service quality, and experience. There is a lesson here for every enterprise leader. When a competitor removes friction from your industry, market share can move very fast. The only durable defense is value delivered consistently. Verizon can still turn the ship, but the window is short. T-Mobile will be the largest across all segments by the end of 2026 if nothing changes. What other industries are one friction-removal away from a major reshuffling? #telecom #wireless #customersuccess #digitaltransformation #businessstrategy